Katie Über Alles

Better late than never (election predictions)

Electoral College: Obama 311, McCain 227

Popular vote: Obama 54%, McCain 46% (I don't think any of the 3rd party candidates are gonna make it to 1%)

NBC/MSNBC first network to call at 12:01am, 11/5

Senate: Dems 56 (excluding Independents)
No predictions on the House, haven't been following any of those races...

Maryland Question 2 (slots): Pass
California Prop 8 (gay marriage ban): Fail
(These are both so close, my predictions here are probably more wishful thinking than anything else)

A lot of people I know have Obama doing better in the EC than me.  It's quite possible he could win Florida.  He also has a (lesser) chance in North Carolina.  I would be surprised if he won Missouri, Arizona, Indiana, Georgia, Montana, or North Dakota, though I know these states are supposedly in play. 

I am in class til 9:30 tonight, but you can bet after that, I'll have my butt firmly planted in front of a tv somewhere.

I knew there was a reason!

Back in the day, I used to be a total news junkie...mostly tv.  Some time after 9/11/01, however, I stopped watching the local/nightly news because I was turning into a stressed out zombie (having your office evacuated on 9/11, seeing the pentagon on fire first hand, then having your office evacuated from possible anthrax attack, followed by the DC sniper shooting people right down the street from where you live will do that).

It's been amazing since then every time I turn on the news how depressing it is.  I can get the same news from the paper and not have it affect me the same way.  But today, just got home, turned on the local news...

Story 1: AIG and the 90 billion bailout.  Stock market is screwed.  Fed having to sell stuff to afford the bailout.  Some money market funds are freezing accounts...  This story is getting scarier and scarier.

Story 2: PG and Montgomery Counties are requiring employees to take unpaid leave because of the state budget crisis.

Story 3: People aren't able to get jobs anywhere so they are having to commute hundreds of miles just to get a job.

Add to that all the "normal" DC stuff like little kids getting caught in gun crossfire and it makes for a very uplifting evening.  /sarcasm.

PT wages flat after 8 years

I've been looking for a part-time job a few days/week less for the money and more to just help keep me on track.  I always do better when I have some set schedule.

But I've noticed that the standard hourly rate for these kinds of jobs is the exact same it was 8 years ago when I first graduated college.  Meanwhile, cost of living is definitely more expensive (gas alone has tripled in price), and it wasn't enough to live on even back then (My first job out of college was doing tech support...offered little $, no benefits, and dealing with angry people all day.  I was looking for a new job literally from day 1).  You'd think it would at least be a dollar or two more.

Crazy. 

Of potential interest to DC-area degens

Snagged from DC-ist:

D.C. Area Struck by Counterfeit Bills: The Examiner reports on a warning from the U.S. Secret Service that the D.C. metro area is being plagued by counterfeit $100 bills. Many different individuals who appear not to be working together have been arrested in the region for using a bleaching technique to turn $5 bills into $100. Since they are printed on real currency paper and still contain security strips, the only way to tell if you have a fake $100 bill is to hold it up to the light and check for an old Abraham Lincoln next to a reprinted Benjamin Franklin that do not match up.

Some political humour

Hat tip to Melissa.

SNL 2008 Fringe Candidates Debate | Funny Jokes at JibJab

Rant of the Day

I am sitting in the grad lab prepping for my sections this afternoon when Jesse reminded me of one of my number one pet peeves.

I am a universal donor (O-) in terms of blood donation.  BUT since I have lived in the UK for more than 3 months since 1979 I can never donate.  It's not even like I can donate 10 years after or 20 years after.   It's just a permanent blacklist from donating forever and ever, amen.

In the DC area where many people travel abroad for extended periods of time, this has to cut into their donor base.

What is the reason?  There is no blood test for mad cow disease (ah, maybe that is my problem!).  I guess it's good that they are being safe, but don't you think after, say 20 years, the person would have figured out if they had mad cow or not???

In Syracuse, where there aren't that many Democrats to begin with...

From Syracuse.com:

In the city of Syracuse, the strangest thing happened in Tuesday's Democratic presidential primary.

Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama received the exact same number of votes, according to unofficial Board of Election results.

Clinton: 6,001.

Obama: 6,001.

"Wow, that is odd," said Jay Biba, Clinton's Central New York campaign coordinator. "I never heard of that in my life."

The odds of Clinton and Obama tying were less than one in 1 million, said Syracuse University mathematics Professor Hyune-Ju Kim.

"It's almost impossible," said Kim, who analyzed the statewide and citywide votes.

Lisa Daly, Obama's Syracuse campaign coordinator, said she thought a mistake had been made when she was first told the tally by the Board of Elections.

What are the chances of it happening?

"Good thing it wasn't a mayor's race," quipped Grant Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs.

A total of 12,346 votes were cast for Democrats in the city. Four other Democrats also received votes: John Edwards, 114; Dennis Kucinich, 113; Bill Richardson, 90; and Joe Biden, 27.

The tie is likely to be broken when elections officials recanvass the voting machines and add in the absentee and affidavit votes.

But for now, it's all even.

Looks like Hillary hasn't kept up the same positive impression among CNY Democrats that she had years ago when she decided to carpetbag...

Number one sign that we have truly hit a recession?

Starbucks is closing stores.  *gasp*

Wha? A Hillary rant.

As one might imagine, political conversation was flowing freely when we were out in SF.  Almost all my friends that were there for the wedding are campaign/political professionals.

One thing we all agreed on: Hillary has got to go.  I am unsure how she can be the front runner when literally every single Democrat I have talked to about this does not like her...especially those of us from NY. 

And now, even more reason to dislike her:

Not just universal health care, but mandated health care.  if my liberal friends are shaking their heads and saying: "there goes Katie on another libertarian rant again!", my apologies.  However, despite what you think about universal health care coverage, I cannot believe there are many out there who think it is appropriate to make lack of health insurance a crime.  I would like to hear from someone who thinks this is a good idea.

Supreme Court Weakens Campaign Finance Laws

The Supreme Court struck down part of McCain-Feingold today.  SCOTUS blog has a few insightful analyses (as always...for those interested in such things, I recommend subscribing to this blog with your feed reader).  At first blush, I am not sure how I feel about this ruling, but then again, I have always had mixed feelings on campaign finance regulation.  The libertarian side of me says regulation is inherently bad, but the practical side of me sees the utility of it.  Thoughts from the peanut gallery are encouraged...  If nothing else, this probably means that we will be deluged with swiftboat-esque ads in 2008...especially if you live in a battleground state.

This also reminds me of why political science is so exciting to research...things are constantly changing which means we will never run out of interesting research topics.  Of course, we also have the problem of measurement more than a lot of other social sciences.  How do you measure power exactly?  You could make a career out of that topic and never come up with a good answer.