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Attn: GVPT quantitative methods people

If you need a quant class to meet your 12 credits and you can't find anything past Maximum Likelihood Estimation in GVPT, let me highly, HIGHLY recommend EDMS 771 (especially if it is taught by Dr. Andre Rupp).  It is especially useful if you are a behaviorist. 

I'm taking this class this semester and it has me excited about stats again.  No tests, but we have homework sets every other week and short statistical critique essays on alternate weeks (which are actually fun to write - yes I know I'm a nerd).  Just like most GVPT classes (and MLE), we have a final research paper using a method we learned as well.  The class is taught in a very straightforward manner with powerpoints that are sent ahead every week and forced (but non-graded) practice work in class.  We have lab work in SPSS but he doesn't care if you use STATA or R.

February 19, 2009 at 04:34 PM in Political Science | Permalink | Comments (0)

I assume my last paper was a good one...

I've been sweating my contemporary theory grade all semester.  I got a B- on my first paper, which is the worst grade I've gotten on anything since undergrad and in grad school is considered failing.  I'd actually put a lot of time in on this paper, so I was somewhat upset.

Next paper, I put in considerably less time but managed to get an A-.  I don't know what I got on my third paper, but...

My grade just posted on testudo, and somehow I got an A- in the class.  Three cheers for me, I am very pleased.

I also found out that I got an A- on my last paper for my Survey class, so assuming I didn't tank the take home final (which I don't think I did), I have an A- in that class too.

Now just got to keep my fingers crossed for game theory.

December 18, 2008 at 07:35 PM in All About Me, Political Science | Permalink | Comments (0)

Better late than never (election predictions)

Electoral College: Obama 311, McCain 227
Untitled

Popular vote: Obama 54%, McCain 46% (I don't think any of the 3rd party candidates are gonna make it to 1%)

NBC/MSNBC first network to call at 12:01am, 11/5

Senate: Dems 56 (excluding Independents)
No predictions on the House, haven't been following any of those races...

Maryland Question 2 (slots): Pass
California Prop 8 (gay marriage ban): Fail
(These are both so close, my predictions here are probably more wishful thinking than anything else)

A lot of people I know have Obama doing better in the EC than me.  It's quite possible he could win Florida.  He also has a (lesser) chance in North Carolina.  I would be surprised if he won Missouri, Arizona, Indiana, Georgia, Montana, or North Dakota, though I know these states are supposedly in play. 

I am in class til 9:30 tonight, but you can bet after that, I'll have my butt firmly planted in front of a tv somewhere.

November 04, 2008 at 04:02 PM in All About Me, Current Affairs, Political Science | Permalink | Comments (0)

I found a summer job (kinda)

My application for teaching in the summer got accepted, so I'll be teaching my own course in the second summer session (end of July-August).  The other exciting news is that it is a class I designed myself (based on a syllabus I had to do for a "Teaching Political Science class" that I took my first year).  It's a class on the bureaucracy, so I'm really excited since the classes I took in my MA program on bureaucracy and organization were some of my favorites.  The only downside is that it's going to be an online class, but the upside of that is that I don't have to be around campus to teach it.

I need to come up with a jazzy title, so suggestions are encouraged.  Here is the syllabus:

Bureaucratic Politics

 

Katie Baxter

Office: Tydings 5115

kbaxter@gvpt.umd.edu

           

Course Description:

When thinking about branches of American government, most people overlook a very important part of the executive branch: the bureaucracy.  In fact, the bureaucracy is an incredibly important part of government, responsible for regulating many aspects of our daily lives including television broadcasts, food safety, and environmental safety.  Furthermore, there is ongoing debate as to whether the bureaucracy is a democratic institution since it is often able to operate with limited interference from the President and Congress.  This course will examine the politics of the bureaucracy, starting with theories of bureaucratic organization, then moving on to the politics of bureaucratic control.  We will also examine bureaucratic dysfunction by looking at two case studies from recent events: September 11th and Hurricane Katrina. 

 

Course Requirements:

Participation and attendance – 20%

Short response paper – 20%

Research paper – 50%

Presentation – 10%

 

All students should come to each class and be prepared to critically discuss the assigned readings.  While I expect everyone to come to class, merely showing up is not sufficient.

 

You are also required to write a short response paper at some point during the semester.  It should be 3 pages double-spaced and consist of your critical response to the readings we will be discussing that day in class (Did you agree or disagree with the authors? Is there something important that the authors did not consider?  How do the readings help us to understand the topic at hand?)  While the primary focus should be the readings for that class, it is acceptable to cite other relevant works. 

 

Lastly, you are required to write a research paper on one of the topics below.  If you wish to explore another topic, you must approve it with me in advance.  This paper should be 8-10 pages double spaced and will be due on the last day of class.  Sources should be documented in either APA or MLA style.  I have style guides available for your use if you have questions on source documentation.  On the last day of class, each person will have approximately 10 minutes to present their paper.

 

            Topic 1: Control of the Bureaucracy/Bureaucratic Discretion

To what extent does Congress and the President have control over the bureaucracy?  Do you agree with the congressional dominance literature or the bureaucratic discretion literature?  In terms of democratic theory does either perspective cause normative problems?  What are the potential solutions?

 

            Topic 2: Models of Organization

Which model of bureaucratic organization do you find the most satisfying:

Wilson

, Niskanen, Garbage can, some other model, or some combination of models?  Compare and contrast all potential models of organization and evaluate their pros and cons.

 

            Topic 3: Bureaucratic Dysfunction

What are the primary causes of bureaucratic dysfunction?  What are potential solutions, both procedural and cultural?  Discuss a few examples of bureaucratic dysfunction (e.g., FEMA and Hurricane Katrina, Intelligence agencies and 9/11. etc.) and how these situations might have been mitigated.

 

Required Text:

Wilson, James Q. 1989. Bureaucracy: What Government Agencies Do and How They Do It.  (

New York

: Basic Books).

 

I will also be providing articles and other readings listed below on ELMS (http://elms.umd.edu).

 

Accommodations for Students with Disabilities: If you have a disability and you are registered with Disability Support Services (DSS), please contact me as soon as possible so that we can discuss accommodations. A written request for accommodation is required. If you have questions about

University

of

Maryland

’s disability policies please contact DSS at (301) 314-7682.

 

Academic Integrity: You are expected to familiarize yourself with and follow the Code of Academic Integrity (http://studenthonorcouncil.umd.edu/code.html). Academic dishonesty is taken very seriously and will not be tolerated. 

 

General Course Outline: You are expected to have completed the assigned reading each week before coming to class.  I also reserve the right to change reading assignments as needed. 

 

Class 1:           Course introduction

Dye, Thomas.  Politics in

America

,

Ch.

12

 

Class 2:           Models of Organization

Wilson, James Q. 1989. Bureaucracy: What Government Agencies Do and How

They Do It.Ch. 1-2.

March, James G., Michael D. Cohen, and Johan P. Olsen. 1972. “A Garbage Can

Model of Organizational Decision Making.” Administrative Science Quarterly 17(1): 1-25.

Niskanen, William.  1971.  “Bureaucracy.” 

Ch.

11

 

Class 3:           Bureaucrats as Operators

Wilson, James Q. 1989. Bureaucracy: What Government Agencies Do and How

They Do It.Ch. 3-6.

 

Class 4:           Bureaucrat Managers

Wilson, James Q. 1989. Bureaucracy: What Government Agencies Do and How

They Do It.Ch. 7-9.

 

Class 5:           Congressional Relations

Wilson, James Q. 1989. Bureaucracy: What Government Agencies Do and How

They Do It.Ch. 13.

McCubbins, Mathew D. and Thomas Schwartz. 1984. “Congressional Oversight

Overlooked: Police Patrols versus Fire Alarms.” American Journal of Political Science, 28 (February): 165-179.

McNollgast.  1987.  “Administrative Procedures as Instruments of Political

Control.” Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, 3: 243-277.   

 

Class 6:           Presidential Relations

Wilson, James Q. 1989. Bureaucracy: What Government Agencies Do and How

They Do It.Ch. 14.

Whittington, Keith E. and Daniel P. Carpenter. 2003. “Executive Power in

American Institutional Development” Perspectives on Politics 1 (September): 495-513.

                        Golden, Marissa.  1992.  “Exit, Voice, Loyalty, and Neglect: Bureaucratic

Responses to Presidential Control.”  Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, 1: 29-62. 

 

Class 7:           Bureaucratic Discretion

Carpenter, Daniel P.  2001.  The Forging of Bureaucratic Autonomy:

Reputations, Networks, and Policy Innovation in Executive Agencies, 1862-1928.  Princeton:

Princeton

University

Press.  Ch. 1-2 and Conclusion.

           

Class 8:           Bureaucratic Executives

Wilson, James Q. 1989. Bureaucracy: What Government Agencies Do and How

They Do It.Ch. 10-12.

 

Class 9:           Issue Networks and Iron Triangles

                        Heclo, Hugh.  1978.  “Issue Networks & the Executive Establishment.” 

pp. 429-439 in Richard J. Stillman, II. 1992, Public Administration  Concepts and Cases, Fifth Edition,

Boston

: Houghton Mifflin Company. 

                        Gais, et al.  1984.  “Interest Groups, Iron Triangles and Representative

Institutions in American National Government.”  British Journal of Political Science.  14: 161-185. 

 

Class 10:         Organizational Dysfunction, a Case Study – FEMA and Katrina

                        Morris, John C.  2006.  “Whither FEMA?  Hurricane Katrina and FEMA’s

Response to the

Gulf

Coast

.”  Public Works Management and Policy, 10: 284-294. 

                        Lipton, Eric.  2006.  “Despite Steps, Disaster Planning Still Shows Gaps.”  NYT

article available online

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/26/us/nationalspecial/26katrina.html?pagewanted=1&ei=5088&en=f7d953949a30b210&ex=1314244800&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

 

Class 11:         Organizational Dysfunction, a Case Study – 9/11

9/11 Commission Report Ch. 3 and 11, available online at http://www.9-11commission.gov/report/911Report.pdf. 

 

Class 12:         Conclusions and paper presentations

                        FINAL PAPER DUE

October 29, 2008 at 12:52 PM in All About Me, Political Science | Permalink | Comments (1)

Why I'm never betting on politics again...

Yesterday in my class we spent some time talking about the Bradley effect.  I simply jotted down: "Bradley effect: why I owe Pete $250."

Simply put, the Bradley effect is the premise that a significant number of voters will systematically lie in polls, saying that they plan to vote for a candidate of color, but when they actually go to the polls they vote for the white candidate.  There are several instances of polls showing a candidate of color leading by large margins in the polls, only to lose the election.  For those familiar with the race and politics literature, this fits in with all the stuff that focuses on how latent racism has generally replaced overt racism, since overt racism is not seen as socially acceptable anymore.

Almost a year ago I made a bet with Pete that Obama would not be the next President of the United States.  This was before Obama won any primaries...I banked on Hillary's people running a better campaign and the Bradley effect.  And McCain being the McCain of 2000 and not picking Sarah Palin.  Ah well.

I think Obama will likely win the election, but the Bradley effect has me wondering if this race will actually end up being closer than everyone thinks.  In New Hampshire during the primaries, Obama was polling way ahead of Hillary even up til the day of the primary...and then Hillary won.  Evidence of the Bradley effect?  Maybe.  Polling is also only as good as the assumptions behind it and I think the numbers for young/first time voters and African Americans turning out are unrealistically high.  Voting is habitual and there is a reason that historically these groups do not turn out in large numbers.  Indeed, I know quite a few young people who are ardent supporters of Obama, but missed the voting registration deadline.  Guess who won't be voting?  I would be surprised (but not shocked) if turnout numbers for these groups end up as high as some people are predicting.  These groups not turning out can only hurt Obama.

In addition to the Bradley effect, I wonder if Obama will suffer from the front runner effect.  People are taking for granted that this election is already over to the point that I think it will negatively affect turnout.  The less important people view their individual vote as being, the less likely they are to turnout (yes, I largely buy into the fundamental logic of Downs' "Economic Theory of Democracy"). 

Anyways, I think it's probably safe to say that Obama will be elected.  However, I think this election may not be the Nixon/McGovern style blowout that people are predicting.

October 16, 2008 at 12:31 PM in Political Science | Permalink | Comments (0)

Nerd term of the day: selection bias

What happens when we get unexpected results from the data we have?  If we are just relying on memory, or if our sampling procedure was bad, perhaps it is faulty data.  Garbage in, garbage out.

From Wikipedia:

Selection bias is a distortion of evidence or data that arises from the way that the data are collected. It is sometimes referred to as the selection effect. The term selection bias most often refers to the distortion of a statistical analysis, due to the method of collecting samples. If the selection bias is not taken into account then any conclusions drawn may be wrong.


See also: cognitive dissonance.

June 14, 2008 at 06:42 PM in Political Science | Permalink | Comments (0)

Return of FOMF (over the summer)

The GVPTers are a rowdy bunch.  When we play ultimate frisbee, you better watch out - it's serious.  Benli just sent out an email saying FOMF (that's Frisbee on the Mall Fridays) is gonna continue over summer break.  Be there or be square - McKeldin Mall in front of Tydings at 5pm.

May 29, 2008 at 05:52 AM in All About Me, Political Science, Sports | Permalink | Comments (0)

Students and grade inflation

Finished my grading yesterday and was wondering if I was too easy on my kids.  I didn't give out a single C, though I did give out a few grades lower than that.  Everyone else got an A or a B... and yet today I have had more than a few email exchanges with people unhappy with their grades.

Last semester I had a much more normally distributed range and did not get a single complaint.  ???

I dunno, maybe it is a good thing kids care about their grades, but I don't think I ever once complained about a grade I got in college...certainly not one in the A or B range.

May 24, 2008 at 06:24 PM in Political Science | Permalink | Comments (0)

Important Statistical Information

My friend from school Steve just sent me this hilarious email.  Warning: nerd jokes ahead.

Here are some graphical presentations that will no doubt come in handy in our future careers teaching undergrads.

Steve

Image001

Image002

Image003

Image005

Image006

Image007

Image008

Image009

Image010

Image011

Image012

Image013

Image014

Image015

Image016

Image017

Image018

 

May 08, 2008 at 12:01 PM in Political Science | Permalink | Comments (0)

Some political humour

Hat tip to Melissa.

SNL 2008 Fringe Candidates Debate | Funny Jokes at JibJab

May 05, 2008 at 12:23 PM in Current Affairs, Political Science, Television | Permalink | Comments (0)

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